Weitong Presents Research on the Economic Impacts of China’s Climate Policies
Wageningen, The Netherlands – May 16, 2025
By Weitong Long
Weitong Long, Ph.D. candidate in Environmental Economics at Wageningen University & Research (WUR) and Visiting Scholar at the Louis Lab, recently presented our collaborative study titled “Land-use emission leakages from China’s dietary shift and afforestation amplify food insecurity and economic losses under the 2 °C target.” seminar took place on April 22 within WUR’s Environmental Economics group and was attended by faculty and students from WUR, and by Dr. Karl Boy and Dr. Luis Peña Lévano, both co-authors of the study.
The research uses an integrated environmental–economic model to evaluate the global consequences of China’s unilateral climate actions—namely, dietary shifts and afforestation efforts. While these domestic measures support China’s carbon neutrality goals, they also trigger substantial emission leakages abroad through trade induced land-use changes.
For instance, China’s shift to a diet with less meat and more dairy increases food demand overseas, leading to an additional 19 million hectares (Mha) of agricultural land use outside China and causing 549 Tg CO₂-equivalent (CO₂e) in emission leakage—more than triple its domestic reduction. Similarly, China’s afforestation policy may lead to an additional 16 Mha of land conversion abroad and 424 Tg CO₂e in emissions, offsetting domestic gains.
These indirect emissions, driven mainly by land-use change, put extra pressure on non- food sectors to meet the 2 °C climate target. Without coordinated global action, these measures risk worsening food insecurity (affecting an additional 118 million people), increasing economic losses ($95 billion), and raising global carbon tax burdens.
The research visit in the Netherlands also featured a seminar by Dr. Peña-Lévano on “Sustainable Practices in U.S. Dairy Farms” which fostered valuable dialogue with WUR faculty and students on advancing sustainability in global food systems.
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